David Luciani

"If Sleepers Existed" - Part 2
February 5, 2010

If you missed part one of this series, please check it out for both an explanation of the title and to get a look at the ten hitters we have already highlighted.  In this second and concluding part, we present ten pitchers worthy of your attention.

Ben Sheets, Oakland:  At thirty-one years of age, he actually was showing clear and continued improvement the past few healthy years he had in Milwaukee.  While our forecast reflects the uncertainty associated with a pitcher who missed an entire season, if he shows that he's truly back to his old form in spring training, we might be inclined to upgrade his currently projected 20 starts or so to something closer to 30 and we're already forecasting a strong ERA in the mid-3's regardless.  Give him as many starts as he had two years ago with Milwaukee and you'll be talking about a pitcher very much capable of supporting a fantasy team's WHIP and ERA with lots of strikeouts and double digit win totals. 

Billy Wagner, Atlanta:  We were skeptical about Wagner when we published our first projections back in late November but then the Braves not only signed him but announced him as their closer.  Critical to that decision was that the Braves feel certain that he is fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out most of his 2009 season.  The closer we looked at Wagner, the more we realized just how well he pitched when he made it back late in the year.  In 15.2 innings, split between the Mets and Red Sox, Wagner allowed only 8 hits and struck out 26 batters, rates we hadn't seen from him since 2007.  Yes, it's a small sample but even over such short stretches, few pitchers in the majors post those kinds of numbers with any frequency and we do now believe that Wagner is back.  At thirty-eight, we won't be forecasting anything like those low 2's ERAs he used to put up in his prime but even if he performs in the low 3's territory we're projecting, and stays healthy for a reasonable chunk of the season, he'll be good for close to 25 saves here and if he misses no time at all, then 30+ is entirely within reach.

Shaun Marcum, Toronto:  Like Ben Sheets, Marcum is coming off a missed season but unlike him, there really isn't a strong injury history here that implies he's a long-term risk.  He's still only twenty-eight and rather quietly put up back to back strong pitching seasons in 2007-2008, a result of better than expected control and a surprisingly good strikeout rate.  He has to prove that he's healthy in spring training but in his favor is that the Blue Jays have very limited rotation options, at least any with real big league experience that is, so if he does show he's recovered from Tommy John surgery and starts the season in the rotation, he'll have very strong job security once he's already proven his health in the spring.  With a 3.95 career ERA in almost 400 big league innings and a 3.39 ERA in 151.1 innings the last time we saw him healthy in the majors, there's a lot of upside here and he'll likely only require the latest of draft picks and/or the lowest of bids.

Octavio Dotel, Pittsburgh:  Dotel is one of the few closers for whom we have projected somewhere close to a full season's worth of saves (21) without him having actually been in that sort of role in the past few years.  In fact, the last time Dotel saved more than 11 games was way back in 2004, when he saved 36 games splitting the season between Houston and Oakland.  What you need to know about Dotel is that even at thirty-six, he's definitely a good enough pitcher to be worthy of closing out games.  He has all the typical characteristics of a closer too.  The past two years, for example, he's averaged about 65 innings, 53 hits allowed, 33 walks and 84 strikeouts with an ERA in the mid 3's and assuming that kind of performance can hold up to a reasonable degree, which it should, there really isn't a better pitcher on this team who can give him much competition.  Joel Hanrahan has closing experience but has never pitched as well in the majors in his brief career as Dotel usually does in a typical season.  Evan Meek had a good breakthrough last year but he's a little older than you might guess (turns twenty-seven in May) and has had a rather spotty minor league career record prior to 2008.  Brendan Donnelly, when healthy, has the potential to be similarly effective but he hasn't pitched more than 30 innings since 2006.  Assuming he doesn't get hurt or there's some sort of unanticipated trade, we'll be very surprised if Dotel doesn't land the majority of Pittsburgh's saves this year.

Ian Kennedy, Arizona:  His stock has really fallen compared to where it was when just a few years ago, he was among the top-ranked pitching prospects in baseball.  The shoulder problem last year (an aneurysm in his shoulder) cost him not only the year but enabled the Yankees to settle on other options and thus trade him to Arizona in the three team Curtis Granderson deal.  His prospects for playing time here are far better and the pressure to perform immediately will be lower.  You can pretty much overlook most of what you've seen in the majors so far and that 6.03 ERA in his first 59.2 big league innings should be put in the learning and development category.  He wasn't ready and it showed.  He pitched in the Arizona Fall League this past off-season, which was an important step for him to take, proving he's fully recovered from the injury.  No, we're not projecting Cy Young in season one in Arizona but we are expecting that he's good enough to establish himself as the kind of pitcher who'll allow a rate of lower than a hit given up per inning with plenty of strikeouts.  Our forecast also reflects the risk factors, not only the bounce-back from last year but the chance of missing additional time as a result of either injury or a lack of expected performance.  So, for now, we've only forecasted about 135-140 innings.  If he can defy that, pitch as well as expected and stay healthy, he's the kind of pitcher who could contribute 150-175 strikeouts in his first full season in the rotation.  

Mike Gonzalez, Baltimore:  After facing competition for save opportunities in Atlanta, he moves to an organization desperately in need of returned stability out of the closer's role.  We believe he can provide that.  Setting aside the likely challenge he'll make to his career-best 24 save mark (set in 2006), Gonzalez has been an incredibly effective pitcher, now with a career 2.57 ERA in more than 280 big league innings.  While we expect his ERA will go up in the American League and also should have been a little higher than it was last year if he had average luck, there's no apparent candidate in Baltimore who can unseat him.  All he has to do is stay healthy.

Mat Latos, San Diego: Now twenty-two, he had a rather mediocre breakthrough to the majors after a very quick rise through the San Diego system.  Before last year, he had never pitched above Single-A ball and he still skipped Triple-A.  What has our attention about Latos is that those minor league performances, even when adjusted for the lower quality of competition he faced, are pretty extraordinary.  At Double-A San Antonio last year, in 9 starts, he pitched 47 innings and had a 1.91 ERA that actually was higher than it should have been if you consider his 32 hits allowed, 9 walks, 46 strikeouts and no home runs allowed.  The Single-A portion of his 2009 season saw him post a microscopic 0.36 ERA in 25.1 innings.  In fact, his minor league career strongly implies a player who will rarely give up a home run and the 7 he allowed in 50.2 big league innings in what should have been a learning experience speaks to that.  In fact, the nerves showed more in the walks column as his minor league career also promises a pitcher who will rarely walk anyone and in the majors, well that wasn't the case - he walked 23 in 50.2 innings.  We expect he's learned from the 2009 big league audition and if he can pitch well enough in the spring to hang on to what seems to be a spot in the starting rotation, he's capable of being extremely helpful to fantasy teams right now.  Pitching half of his games in a home park like this can't hurt either.

Justin Duchscherer, Oakland:  You have to really feel for Duchscherer as he missed a lot of time not just because of the sore elbow he experienced early in the year but because he was reported to be suffering from depression at the end of the year.  In a lot of ways, he's similar to former teammate Rich Harden in that everyone knows he can be a great pitcher as long as he can stay healthy.  Duchscherer was a bit of a late arrival to the majors, it's worth noting, as he's now thirty-two and didn't break through with his first full big league season until he was twenty-six.  However, the consistency of his excellence when he pitches is noteworthy.  Setting aside a forgettable 16.1 inning performance in a mostly-missed 2007 season and overlooking his brief 2001 debut with Texas, his ERAs have been in the 2's and low 3's throughout his career.  The way our forecast shapes up, he doesn't have to stay healthy or even have a clear role to have surprisingly good value.  We've projected 11 starts and 40 appearances overall in the previously published forecasts, leading to about 70-75 innings.  If he throws that many, and performs with the low to mid 3's ERA we're expecting and with the excellent WHIP, he's going to have value even if he ends up without a single save and with only a handful of wins.  Players like him, even with the risk associated with missed time, can be excellent for rounding out a pitching staff.

Brad Lidge, Philadelphia:  We don't know how many different ways we can say it but quite simply, there's no way Lidge is as bad as he looked last year.  The incredibly heavy weight of his career preceding 2009 and his age (now thirty-three) leads us to believe that he had a season which was an incredible negative fluke.  He has openly said since the season ended that injuries hampered him and that may also be true but really, players want to explain bad performances, even in their own mind.  They want to justify or resolve why they failed so they can resolve problems and be better the next time.  There are actually many positives you can extract from what looks like a miserable season.  He was still striking hitters out, 61 in 58.2 innings.  His control was where it always has been.  His home run rate, while high, wasn't much different than in 2007, when he escaped with a 3.36 ERA.  The key to last year's slump was the percentage of balls in play, setting aside home runs, that fell for base hits.  An amazing 34% of non-HR balls in play against him fell for base hits last year.  His rate in 2008 was 29% and the year before it was 28%.  The 34% rate is, quite simply, on the extreme end of unlikely outcomes and that's why Lidge's performance suffered.  When that comes down, so will his ERA.  The one uncertainty reflected in our forecast is that because he appeared so bad last year, he has to prove early that it was a fluke and that will be challenging because it's not clear if he's going to be healthy by Opening Day.  We still have to highlight him as a pitcher who definitely is better than last year's numbers reveal and who has the potential to return to top value if he's healthy and has even ordinary luck.

Brandon Webb, Arizona:  We have to mention Webb, not because we are forecasting him to be what he once was but because he missed so much time that it seems he's getting a much lower ranking for 2010 from some sources than he deserves.  Yes, he started a grand total of one game last year and he's now in his thirties but this is a player who has a career 3.27 ERA in more than 1,300 innings.  It's virtually impossible for us to project that sort of performance not only given how much time he's been out but that generally, forecasting ERAs that low is on the high end of risk.  Rather, it's that all indications are that he's throwing fine and will be ready to go on Opening Day.  Our published forecast (29 games started, 150 IP) already accounts for the doubt surrounding how deep he'll go into games and whether he can last the whole season in the rotation.  So, if he's coming out high on your custom ranking sheets at our site, then he's definitely worth strong consideration.